The Lancet/Gettyimages
Demography: this forecast which will not please Emmanuel Macron and his rearmament
NATALITY – Clearly, nothing helps. The President of the Republic, alerted by the drop in the birth rate in France, may well be fighting for demographic recovery, but the forecasts follow one another and are similar: France, like an overwhelming majority of the planet, is firmly heading towards the decline in births. A new study, published in the journal The Lancet on March 20, gives a clear direction for the world population… Whether we apply pronatalist policies or not.
The study, clearly titled “ Spectacular drop in birth rates will transform the planet by 2100 » undertakes the task of defining, country by country, region of the world by region of the world, how fertility rates will evolve. And the picture drawn up is simply stated: in 2100, there is not a continent whose fertility rate will be sufficient to ensure the renewal of generations (i.e. 2.1 children per woman). In other words, demographic decline is coming, for everyone.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
All countries in the world are heading towards roughly the same address: a collapse in the birth rate.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
All regions of the world, without exception, will be in the same boat in 2100.
At first glance, these conclusions are the same as the report released a few months ago by the United Nations. The latter, who emphasizes that global population growth “ is at its slowest pace since 1950 », predicts a growth peak in 2080 with 10.4 billion Earthlings, then a slow decline from 2100. The estimate of Lancet not only joins this projection, but in some way aggravates it.
Pronatalist policies, in the thickness of the line
In rich countries with low fertility like France, the UN predicted a (very modest) rebound from the 2020s, when here we expect, at best, total stability, or even a slight decline. If we do nothing, the average fertility of these countries would thus stand at 1.43 children per woman in 2050 (1.56 for France), falling further to 1.37 children in 2100 (1.43 for France). But the part that will interest Emmanuel Macron the most is the one which mainly details another scenario, where pronatalist policies are activated.
The Lancet
In green in the thickness of the line, the projection of the French birth rate with pronatalist policy.
Based on past and current experiences of demographic recovery, researchers are pessimistic to say the least: “ Few data show that this policy (of recovering the birth rate) has a lasting and powerful effect ”, says the report. And the projections are hardly more encouraging. Rich countries with low birth rates would thus increase to 1.62 children per woman in 2050 (1.76 for France) and 1.56 in 2100 (1.63 for France). There is definitely an effect, but we are far, very far from demographic growth, or even generational renewal.
The observation is therefore global and implacable, even more so than with the United Nations estimates: for better or for worse, the world is generally moving towards demographic decline, although at different rates. Some low-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, will experience a sustained decline but leave them above the renewal threshold (South Sudan, Somalia, Uganda, Mozambique for example), and will, all throughout the century, the demographic locomotives of a planet will soon be at a standstill… and even in reverse.
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